Diego Costa vs Fran Breen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-2-0Record5-2-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
-Reach-
135 lbsWeight126 lbs
Five RoundsTeamNext Generation MMA Liverpool
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1564
If they lose-23→ 1516
If they win+23→ 1570
If they lose-25→ 1522
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1513 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego CostaFran Breen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diego Costa51%
Fran Breen 49%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Diego Costa a 51% favorite over Fran Breen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fran Breen's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1539 vs 1547), separated by just 8 points.
Diego Costa finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Fran Breen 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.