Combat Edge Intelligence

Dylan Smerillo vs Issa Hosokawa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-4-0Record0-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight152 lbs
3sotericTeamFreelance

What's at stake

Dylan Smerillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Issa Hosokawa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dylan SmerilloNow 1536
If they win+20→ 1556
If they lose-28→ 1508
Issa HosokawaNow 1473
If they win+28→ 1501
If they lose-20→ 1453

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Dylan SmerilloIssa Hosokawa
14501500155020252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
4 (80%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Dylan Smerillo60%
Issa Hosokawa 40%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Dylan Smerillo a 60% favorite over Issa Hosokawa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Dylan Smerillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1536 to 1473, a 63-point edge.

Dylan Smerillo finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.