Dylan Smerillo vs Naoki Tanaka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record3-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
3sotericTeamFighter's Flow
What's at stake
Naoki Tanaka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Dylan Smerillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1561
If they lose-23→ 1513
If they win+23→ 1577
If they lose-25→ 1529
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1485 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dylan SmerilloNaoki Tanaka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Naoki Tanaka81%
Dylan Smerillo 19%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Naoki Tanaka a 81% favorite over Dylan Smerillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Naoki Tanaka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1554 to 1536, a 18-point edge.
Naoki Tanaka enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dylan Smerillo finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Naoki Tanaka 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.