Lewis McGrillen vs Shoko Sato
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-2-0Record38-17-2
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamFight Base Toritsudai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lewis McGrillenShoko Sato
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shoko Sato64%
Lewis McGrillen 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shoko Sato a 64% favorite over Lewis McGrillen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lewis McGrillen's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1674), separated by just 2 points.
Shoko Sato enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Lewis McGrillen finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Shoko Sato 63%.
Shoko Sato carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.