Martin Leon vs Naoki Tanaka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-1-0Record3-2-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
-Reach-
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team WeichafeTeamFighter's Flow
What's at stake
Martin Leon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Naoki Tanaka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1602
If they lose-26→ 1554
If they win+26→ 1580
If they lose-22→ 1532
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1485 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Martin LeonNaoki Tanaka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Naoki Tanaka75%
Martin Leon 25%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Naoki Tanaka a 75% favorite over Martin Leon in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Martin Leon's way (46%).
Martin Leon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1580 to 1554, a 26-point edge.
Naoki Tanaka enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Martin Leon finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Naoki Tanaka 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.