Matheus Scheffel vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record15-15-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
262 lbsWeight246 lbs
CM SystemTeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ryo Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1535
If they lose-13→ 1511
If they win+13→ 1504
If they lose-11→ 1480
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matheus ScheffelRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai79%
Matheus Scheffel 21%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 79% favorite over Matheus Scheffel in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matheus Scheffel's way (45%).
Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1524 to 1491, a 33-point edge.
Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matheus Scheffel finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.