Michael Cyr vs Rafael Aronov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record9-4-0
BantamweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
71.5"Reach-
136 lbsWeight171 lbs
Warrior CampTeamSpirit
What's at stake
Michael Cyr is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Rafael Aronov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1615
If they lose-17→ 1583
If they win+17→ 1595
If they lose-15→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael CyrRafael Aronov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Aronov71%
Michael Cyr 29%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Aronov a 71% favorite over Michael Cyr in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Cyr's way (47%).
Michael Cyr holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1600 to 1578, a 22-point edge.
Michael Cyr enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Aronov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Michael Cyr finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Aronov 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.