Rafael Aronov vs Sergio Cossio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record19-12-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'7"
-Reach71"
171 lbsWeight166 lbs
SpiritTeamInv1ktus Durango
What's at stake
Sergio Cossio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael Aronov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1595
If they lose-15→ 1563
If they win+11→ 1606
If they lose-13→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael AronovSergio Cossio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Aronov80%
Sergio Cossio 20%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Aronov a 80% favorite over Sergio Cossio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sergio Cossio's way (48%).
Sergio Cossio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1595 to 1578, a 17-point edge.
Rafael Aronov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sergio Cossio enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael Aronov finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Cossio 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.