Roggers Souza vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-10-0Record15-15-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
79"Reach-
265 lbsWeight246 lbs
Alcateia MMATeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
Roggers Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ryo Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1538
If they lose-17→ 1506
If they win+13→ 1504
If they lose-11→ 1480
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Roggers SouzaRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai70%
Roggers Souza 30%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 70% favorite over Roggers Souza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roggers Souza's way (45%).
Roggers Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1523 to 1491, a 32-point edge.
Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roggers Souza finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.