Aaron McKenzie vs Ernesto Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-1Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73.5"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
BattleGrounds MMATeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Ernesto Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Aaron McKenzie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1678
If they lose-15→ 1646
If they win+15→ 1694
If they lose-17→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron McKenzieErnesto Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ernesto Rodriguez70%
Aaron McKenzie 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ernesto Rodriguez a 70% favorite over Aaron McKenzie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ernesto Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1679 to 1661, a 18-point edge.
Aaron McKenzie enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ernesto Rodriguez enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Aaron McKenzie finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ernesto Rodriguez 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.