Combat Edge Model · Full card

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov (July 25, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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12Total bouts

12Frozen forecasts

1Close matchups

3Model / Elo splits

4Strong model leans

LockedFight card started

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 12 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

5 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Light Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Magomed Ankalaev21-2-1

Bogdan Guskov18-4-1

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Magomed Ankalaev won

70%Magomed Ankalaev30%Bogdan Guskov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 64% / 36%

Flyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Steve Erceg14-5-0

Ramazan Temirov20-3-0

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Ramazan Temirov won

66%Steve Erceg34%Ramazan Temirov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 47% / 53%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Magomed Zaynukov9-0-0

Damian Rzepecki10-1-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Magomed Zaynukov won

37%Magomed Zaynukov63%Damian Rzepecki

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 46% / 54%

Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Rizvan Kuniev14-3-1

Tyrell Fortune18-4-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Rizvan Kuniev won

41%Rizvan Kuniev59%Tyrell Fortune

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 47% / 53%

Welterweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Abubakar Vagaev26-4-0

Saygid Izagakhmaev22-4-0

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Abubakar Vagaev won

41%Abubakar Vagaev59%Saygid Izagakhmaev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50.6% / 49.4%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

7 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Valter Walker16-1-0

Thomas Petersen11-5-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Valter Walker won

70%Valter Walker30%Thomas Petersen

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 64% / 36%

Light Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Dustin Jacoby22-10-1

Muhammad Saidov10-0-0

Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Muhammad Saidov won

48%Dustin Jacoby52%Muhammad Saidov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 54% / 46%

Welterweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Santiago Ponzinibbio30-10-0

Sam Patterson15-3-1

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Sam Patterson won

27%Santiago Ponzinibbio73%Sam Patterson

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 48% / 52%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Ismael Bonfim20-8-0

Axel Sola13-1-1

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Axel Sola won

38%Ismael Bonfim62%Axel Sola

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49.1% / 50.9%

Light Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Magomed Tuchalov7-0-0

Brendson Ribeiro18-11-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Magomed Tuchalov won

80%Magomed Tuchalov21%Brendson Ribeiro

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 62% / 38%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Nurullo Aliev12-1-0

Mike Davis12-4-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Nurullo Aliev won

75%Nurullo Aliev25%Mike Davis

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 56% / 45%

Bantamweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Cody Gibson21-13-0

Abdul Hussein16-2-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Abdul Hussein won

21%Cody Gibson79%Abdul Hussein

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 45% / 55%