Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Trujillo vs Geoff Pavey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Geoff Pavey
gb-eng

Geoff Pavey

“JiuJitsu”

3-3-0MiddleweightCWFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'5"
70,0"Reach-
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
TBDTeamSensei MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron TrujilloNow 1493
If they win+25→ 1518
If they lose-23→ 1470
Geoff PaveyNow 1501
If they win+23→ 1524
If they lose-25→ 1476

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
41%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
60%
Strike defense
TBD
2.18
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
40%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.44
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Aaron TrujilloGeoff Pavey
1450150015502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
3 (100%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Geoff Pavey66%
Aaron Trujillo 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 66% favorite over Aaron Trujillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1493 vs 1501), separated by just 8 points.

Geoff Pavey 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.