Combat Edge Model · Full card

PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs Colgan predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs Colgan (July 31, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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9Total bouts

9Frozen forecasts

2Close matchups

2Model / Elo splits

4Strong model leans

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9 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Lightweight World Titlev0.5-2026-07-01

Usman Nurmagomedov22-0-0

Archie Colgan13-1-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Usman Nurmagomedov won

73%Usman Nurmagomedov27%Archie Colgan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 62% / 38%

Women's Flyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Dakota Ditcheva16-0-0

Denise Kielholtz9-6-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Dakota Ditcheva won

92%Dakota Ditcheva8%Denise Kielholtz

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 75% / 25%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Amru Magomedov11-0-0

Angel Alvarez11-3-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Amru Magomedov won

76%Amru Magomedov24%Angel Alvarez

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 66% / 35%

Light Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Moustapha Diakhaté6-0-1

Darryl Walker2-1-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Moustapha Diakhaté won

61%Moustapha Diakhaté39%Darryl Walker

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 60% / 40%

Bantamweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Raufeon Stots21-5-0

Lazaro Dayron11-0-1

Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Lazaro Dayron won

47%Raufeon Stots53%Lazaro Dayron

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 56% / 45%

Bantamweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Sean Gauci12-1-0

Allan Begosso10-5-1

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Sean Gauci won

64%Sean Gauci36%Allan Begosso

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 61% / 39%

Catchweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Jonathan Piersma12-4-0

Omar El Dafrawy16-6-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Omar El Dafrawy won

54%Jonathan Piersma46%Omar El Dafrawy

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 55% / 45%

Women's Flyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Montana De La Rosa13-10-1

Tatiana Postarnakova8-0-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Tatiana Postarnakova won

19%Montana De La Rosa81%Tatiana Postarnakova

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 38% / 62%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Chamy Delva7-2-0

Levan Khabalaev6-0-0

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Levan Khabalaev won

34%Chamy Delva66%Levan Khabalaev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%