Aaron Trujillo vs Ryan Parker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-0-0Record4-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'3"
70,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
TBDTeamTeam XCWT MMA
What's at stake
Aaron Trujillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Ryan Parker carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1516
If they lose-25→ 1468
If they win+17→ 1493
If they lose-15→ 1461
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron TrujilloRyan Parker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Trujillo63%
Ryan Parker 37%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Trujillo a 63% favorite over Ryan Parker in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Aaron Trujillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1493 to 1476, a 17-point edge.
Ryan Parker enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryan Parker 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.