Combat Edge Intelligence

Abraham Morales vs Nathan Trepagnier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'3"Height5'7"
-Reach67"
135.0 lbsWeight160 lbs
TBDTeamAcademy of Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Abraham MoralesNow 1500
If they win+24→ 1524
If they lose-24→ 1476
Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

TBDPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
Not available
Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
Not available
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Submission avg.
Not available

Win method breakdown

2 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (40%)
2 (50%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier61%
Abraham Morales 39%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 61% favorite over Abraham Morales in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1500 vs 1505), separated by just 5 points.

Abraham Morales finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.