Combat Edge Intelligence

Abubakar Vagaev vs Gilbert Burns

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-4-0Record22-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
-Reach 71"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Abubakar VagaevNow 1739
If they win+12→ 1751
If they lose-12→ 1727
Gilbert BurnsNow 1744
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1777 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
TBD
Strike accuracy
48%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
TBD
Strike defense
52%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.12
TBD
Takedown accuracy
38%
TBD
Takedown defense
54%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.46

Trajectory

Abubakar VagaevGilbert Burns
1700175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (17%)
KO/TKO
6 (27%)
1 (4%)
Submission
9 (41%)
19 (79%)
Decision
7 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns60%
Abubakar Vagaev 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 60% favorite over Abubakar Vagaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1739 vs 1744), separated by just 5 points.

Abubakar Vagaev enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Abubakar Vagaev finishes 21% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Burns 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.