Abubakar Vagaev vs Randy Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-4-0Record20-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'3"
-Reach78"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamBudokan Martial Arts Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1751
If they lose-12→ 1727
If they win+12→ 1754
If they lose-12→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abubakar VagaevRandy Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Randy Brown61%
Abubakar Vagaev 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Randy Brown a 61% favorite over Abubakar Vagaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1739 vs 1742), separated by just 3 points.
Abubakar Vagaev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Randy Brown enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Abubakar Vagaev finishes 21% of wins inside the distance, Randy Brown 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.