Combat Edge Intelligence

Achilles Estremadura vs Lucas Brennan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-1-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'11"
40,5"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight146 lbs
Ryan's MMA - Checkmat VancouverTeamNext Generation MMA Frisco

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Achilles EstremaduraNow 1637
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613
Lucas BrennanNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.20
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
43%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
70%
Strike defense
Not available
0
Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
0%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Achilles EstremaduraLucas Brennan
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
0 (0%)
Submission
8 (73%)
4 (50%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Brennan66%
Achilles Estremadura 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Brennan a 66% favorite over Achilles Estremadura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1639), separated by just 2 points.

Achilles Estremadura finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Brennan 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.