Combat Edge Intelligence

Achilles Estremadura vs Matt Frevola

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Matt Frevola
us

Matt Frevola

“The Steamrolla”

11-6-1LightweightUFC

1637Solid

Tale of the tape

8-1-0Record11-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
40,5"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Ryan's MMA - Checkmat VancouverTeamGracie Tampa South

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Achilles EstremaduraNow 1637
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613
Matt FrevolaNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.20
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
43%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.69
70%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
2.39
TBD
Takedown accuracy
39%
0%
Takedown defense
36%
0
Submission avg.
0.96

Trajectory

Achilles EstremaduraMatt Frevola
165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (27%)
4 (50%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Achilles Estremadura67%
Matt Frevola 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Achilles Estremadura a 67% favorite over Matt Frevola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1637), separated by just 0 points.

Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Achilles Estremadura finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Matt Frevola 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.