Combat Edge Intelligence

Adriano Moraes vs Jafel Filho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-6-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'7"
70"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Constrictor TeamTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adriano MoraesNow 1671
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
Jafel FilhoNow 1670
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.62
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.52
TBD
Takedown accuracy
45%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
2.24

Trajectory

Adriano MoraesJafel Filho
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (17%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
13 (57%)
Submission
11 (65%)
6 (26%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Adriano Moraes and Jafel Filho within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1670), separated by just 1 points.

Adriano Moraes finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Jafel Filho 94%.

Adriano Moraes carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.