Combat Edge Intelligence

Alden Coria vs Matheus Nicolau

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record19-5-1
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'6"
67"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
4oz. Fight ClubTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alden CoriaNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Matheus NicolauNow 1663
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.69
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
45%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
70%
Strike defense
66%
1.75
Takedown avg.
1.22
33%
Takedown accuracy
43%
71%
Takedown defense
90%
0
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Alden CoriaMatheus Nicolau
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
4 (31%)
Submission
5 (26%)
4 (31%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Alden Coria84%
Matheus Nicolau 16%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Alden Coria a 84% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1663), separated by just 6 points.

Alden Coria enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Alden Coria finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.