Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Gorgees vs Rodrigo Vargas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-1-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight5'7"
TBDReach71"
154 lbsWeight160 lbs
Australian Top TeamTeamMexican Pride Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex GorgeesNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-24→ 1599
Rodrigo VargasNow 1623
If they win+16→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1510 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

0.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.65
32%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.77
38%
Strike defense
58%
0
Takedown avg.
0.40
Not available
Takedown accuracy
25%
55%
Takedown defense
30%
0
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Alex GorgeesRodrigo Vargas
15501600165020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
2 (33%)
Submission
7 (44%)
1 (17%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Gorgees59%
Rodrigo Vargas 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Gorgees a 59% favorite over Rodrigo Vargas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1623 vs 1623), separated by just 0 points.

Rodrigo Vargas enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Alex Gorgees finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Vargas 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.