Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Karalexis vs Michael Dubois

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record15-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach70"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team SityodtongTeamStrike Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex KaralexisNow 1506
If they win+25→ 1531
If they lose-23→ 1483
Michael DuboisNow 1518
If they win+12→ 1530
If they lose-12→ 1506

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.39
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
2.70
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
87%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.90
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alex KaralexisMichael Dubois
150015502008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
1 (10%)
Submission
9 (60%)
4 (40%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Dubois60%
Alex Karalexis 40%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Dubois a 60% favorite over Alex Karalexis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1506 vs 1518), separated by just 12 points.

Michael Dubois enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Alex Karalexis finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Michael Dubois 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.