Alex Karalexis vs Will Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record3-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight161 lbs
Team SityodtongTeamDerby City MMA
What's at stake
Will Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Alex Karalexis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1531
If they lose-23→ 1483
If they win+23→ 1546
If they lose-25→ 1498
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex KaralexisWill Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Davis62%
Alex Karalexis 38%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Davis a 62% favorite over Alex Karalexis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Will Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1523 to 1506, a 17-point edge.
Alex Karalexis finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Will Davis 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.