Alex Nicholson vs César Almeida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record7-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'1"
81,0"Reach74"
224 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamLotus MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex NicholsonCésar Almeida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
César Almeida66%
Alex Nicholson 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes César Almeida a 66% favorite over Alex Nicholson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Nicholson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1628), separated by just 2 points.
Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
César Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, César Almeida 71%.
Alex Nicholson carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.