Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Dave Strasser

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record25-8-4
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight167 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamFreestyle Academy

What's at stake

Dave Strasser is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex OliveiraNow 1596
If they win+13→ 1609
If they lose-11→ 1585
Dave StrasserNow 1611
If they win+11→ 1622
If they lose-13→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1556 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
3.29
51%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
47%
Strike defense
59%
2.35
Takedown avg.
0.80
38%
Takedown accuracy
33%
64%
Takedown defense
33%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraDave Strasser
160016502004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
10 (40%)
5 (20%)
Submission
9 (36%)
5 (20%)
Decision
6 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Oliveira and Dave Strasser within a point of even.

Dave Strasser holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1611 to 1596, a 15-point edge.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Dave Strasser 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.