Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander O'Sullivan vs Don Shainis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Don Shainis
us

Don Shainis

“Shameless”

15-8-0FeatherweightCFC

1580Solid

Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record15-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'6"
-Reach67"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
C-MACTeamCitadel Martial Arts & Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander O'SullivanNow 1580
If they win+24→ 1604
If they lose-24→ 1556
Don ShainisNow 1580
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.42
TBD
Strike accuracy
50%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.87
TBD
Strike defense
31%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.97
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
TBD
Takedown defense
20%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.94

Trajectory

Alexander O'SullivanDon Shainis
1550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
2 (40%)
Submission
3 (20%)
2 (40%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander O'Sullivan57%
Don Shainis 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander O'Sullivan a 57% favorite over Don Shainis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1580), separated by just 0 points.

Alexander O'Sullivan finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Don Shainis 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.