Alexis Tsarmantidis vs Deniz Ilbay
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record10-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'6"
TBDReach70"
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Diversity teamTeamUFD Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1644
If they lose-24→ 1596
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexis TsarmantidisDeniz Ilbay
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexis Tsarmantidis53%
Deniz Ilbay 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexis Tsarmantidis a 53% favorite over Deniz Ilbay in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1620 vs 1619), separated by just 1 points.
Alexis Tsarmantidis enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Deniz Ilbay enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexis Tsarmantidis finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Deniz Ilbay 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.