Ali Bagautinov vs Joseph Morales
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record14-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
65,0"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fight Club KrepostTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1727
If they lose-12→ 1703
If they win+17→ 1719
If they lose-15→ 1687
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagautinovJoseph Morales
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joseph Morales71%
Ali Bagautinov 29%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Morales a 71% favorite over Ali Bagautinov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ali Bagautinov's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1702), separated by just 13 points.
Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ali Bagautinov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Morales 71%.
Ali Bagautinov and Joseph Morales share 1 common opponent: Sean Santella.
Joseph Morales carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.