Ali Bagautinov vs Joseph Morales
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record14-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
65,0"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fight Club KrepostTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1726
If they lose-12→ 1702
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagautinovJoseph Morales
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joseph Morales70%
Ali Bagautinov 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Morales a 70% favorite over Ali Bagautinov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ali Bagautinov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1714 vs 1714), separated by just 0 points.
Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Joseph Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ali Bagautinov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Morales 71%.
Ali Bagautinov and Joseph Morales share 1 common opponent: Sean Santella.
Joseph Morales carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.