Combat Edge Intelligence

Alik Lorenz vs Jeremy Kimball

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record19-11-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
77.5"Reach41,0"
205 lbsWeight213 lbs
MMA LabTeamTeam Wildman Vale Tudo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alik LorenzNow 1609
If they win+24→ 1633
If they lose-24→ 1585
Jeremy KimballNow 1614
If they win+12→ 1626
If they lose-12→ 1602

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.81
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.84
TBD
Strike defense
49%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.41
TBD
Takedown accuracy
20%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alik LorenzJeremy Kimball
1550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (86%)
KO/TKO
14 (74%)
1 (14%)
Submission
1 (5%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Alik Lorenz70%
Jeremy Kimball 30%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Alik Lorenz a 70% favorite over Jeremy Kimball in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jeremy Kimball's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1614), separated by just 5 points.

Alik Lorenz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Kimball 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.