Alivia Bierley vs Gina Carano
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-1-0Record7-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
-Reach66"
137 lbsWeight143 lbs
Pete Spratt American Muay ThaiTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1625
If they lose-24→ 1577
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1499 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alivia BierleyGina Carano
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gina Carano56%
Alivia Bierley 44%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Gina Carano a 56% favorite over Alivia Bierley in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alivia Bierley's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1601 vs 1596), separated by just 5 points.
Alivia Bierley enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gina Carano enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alivia Bierley finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Gina Carano 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.