Allan Nascimento vs Lucas Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'2"
69"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamRenovacao Coari Team· 1674 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1700
If they lose-16→ 1668
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Allan NascimentoLucas Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Allan Nascimento52%
Lucas Rocha 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Allan Nascimento a 52% favorite over Lucas Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Rocha's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1684 vs 1687), separated by just 3 points.
Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Rocha 78%.
Allan Nascimento carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.