Combat Edge Intelligence

Alvin Welch vs Diego Costa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Diego Costa
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Diego Costa

“Tigre”

4-2-0BantamweightLFA

1539Average

Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record4-2-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'6"
-Reach-
126 lbsWeight135 lbs
Sik-JitsuTeamFive Rounds

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alvin WelchNow 1535
If they win+24→ 1559
If they lose-24→ 1511
Diego CostaNow 1539
If they win+24→ 1563
If they lose-24→ 1515

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alvin WelchDiego Costa
1550160020252026

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
2 (50%)
1 (17%)
Submission
1 (25%)
3 (50%)
Decision
1 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Costa54%
Alvin Welch 46%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Costa a 54% favorite over Alvin Welch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1535 vs 1539), separated by just 4 points.

Alvin Welch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Alvin Welch finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Diego Costa 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.