Andre Winner vs Kevin Carrier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-13-2Record5-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Rough HouseTeamUltimate Athletics
What's at stake
Andre Winner is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kevin Carrier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1585
If they lose-13→ 1561
If they win+26→ 1576
If they lose-22→ 1528
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andre WinnerKevin Carrier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Carrier71%
Andre Winner 29%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Carrier a 71% favorite over Andre Winner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andre Winner's way (47%).
Andre Winner holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1574 to 1550, a 24-point edge.
Andre Winner enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Andre Winner finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Carrier 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.