Combat Edge Intelligence

Andreeas Binder vs Nate Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-1-0Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
-Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG Charlestown· 1622 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andreeas BinderNow 1676
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
4.57
Not available
Strike accuracy
45%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
Not available
Strike defense
53%
Not available
Takedown avg.
1.05
Not available
Takedown accuracy
31%
Not available
Takedown defense
42%
Not available
Submission avg.
1.29

Trajectory

Andreeas BinderNate Diaz
1650202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (67%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
2 (17%)
Submission
12 (57%)
2 (17%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Diaz74%
Andreeas Binder 26%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 74% favorite over Andreeas Binder in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andreeas Binder's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1674), separated by just 2 points.

Andreeas Binder enters on a 7-fight win streak.

Andreeas Binder finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.