Combat Edge Intelligence

Andy Ogle vs Connor Matthews

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Andy Ogle

Andy Ogle

“The Little Axe”

9-6-0FeatherweightUFC

1556Solid

Tale of the tape

9-6-0Record7-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
144 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team KaobonTeamLakeville MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andy OgleNow 1556
If they win+16→ 1572
If they lose-16→ 1540
Connor MatthewsNow 1562
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.24
Sig. strikes / min
5.08
45%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.25
50%
Strike defense
56%
1.44
Takedown avg.
3.46
27%
Takedown accuracy
56%
58%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0.69

Trajectory

Andy OgleConnor Matthews
155016002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
1 (14%)
3 (33%)
Submission
5 (71%)
4 (44%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Andy Ogle and Connor Matthews within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1556 vs 1562), separated by just 6 points.

Andy Ogle enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Andy Ogle finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Connor Matthews 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.