Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Rocco Martin vs Keita Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record36-12-2
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach73,0"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Top TeamTeamUnited Gym Tokyo

What's at stake

Anthony Rocco Martin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Keita Nakamura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony Rocco MartinNow 1718
If they win+15→ 1733
If they lose-17→ 1701
Keita NakamuraNow 1692
If they win+13→ 1705
If they lose-11→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
2.23
37%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.20
58%
Strike defense
59%
0.71
Takedown avg.
1.65
27%
Takedown accuracy
49%
69%
Takedown defense
64%
1.02
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Anthony Rocco MartinKeita Nakamura
170020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
9 (25%)
10 (56%)
Submission
16 (44%)
7 (39%)
Decision
11 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Anthony Rocco Martin75%
Keita Nakamura 25%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Rocco Martin a 75% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Anthony Rocco Martin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1718 to 1692, a 26-point edge.

Anthony Rocco Martin finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Keita Nakamura 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.