Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Carvalho vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record8-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Bruckmann Martial ArtsTeamGlendale Fighting Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antonio CarvalhoNow 1628
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612
Melsik BaghdasaryanNow 1624
If they win+16→ 1640
If they lose-16→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.03
Sig. strikes / min
5.04
29%
Strike accuracy
60%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
65%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
100%
Takedown defense
73%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Antonio CarvalhoMelsik Baghdasaryan
160016502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
5 (63%)
3 (20%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (33%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Melsik Baghdasaryan62%
Antonio Carvalho 38%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Melsik Baghdasaryan a 62% favorite over Antonio Carvalho in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antonio Carvalho's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1628 vs 1624), separated by just 4 points.

Melsik Baghdasaryan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antonio Carvalho finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Melsik Baghdasaryan 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.