Combat Edge Intelligence

Arijan Topallaj vs Egor Kostyuchenko

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-1Record8-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
-Reach73"
163 lbsWeight170 lbs
Planet Eater· 1654 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Arijan TopallajNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Egor KostyuchenkoNow 1650
If they win+24→ 1674
If they lose-24→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Arijan TopallajEgor Kostyuchenko
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
3 (30%)
Submission
2 (25%)
2 (20%)
Decision
5 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Arijan Topallaj57%
Egor Kostyuchenko 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Arijan Topallaj a 57% favorite over Egor Kostyuchenko in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1650), separated by just 2 points.

Arijan Topallaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Egor Kostyuchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Arijan Topallaj finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Egor Kostyuchenko 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.