Ashe Bowman vs Gustavo García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-11-0Record1-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"HeightTBD
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight152 lbs
Lion's DenTeam
What's at stake
Ashe Bowman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Gustavo García carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1455
If they lose-17→ 1423
If they win+25→ 1444
If they lose-23→ 1396
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ashe BowmanGustavo García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gustavo García51%
Ashe Bowman 49%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo García a 51% favorite over Ashe Bowman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ashe Bowman's way (47%).
Ashe Bowman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1440 to 1419, a 21-point edge.
Ashe Bowman enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Ashe Bowman finishes 89% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.