Ashley Barrett vs Istela Nunes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record6-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'4"
62"Reach66"
116 lbsWeight115 lbs
USMMATeamTeam Nunes
What's at stake
Ashley Barrett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Istela Nunes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1543
If they lose-25→ 1495
If they win+17→ 1518
If they lose-15→ 1486
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashley BarrettIstela Nunes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Istela Nunes55%
Ashley Barrett 45%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Istela Nunes a 55% favorite over Ashley Barrett in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ashley Barrett's way (47%).
Ashley Barrett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1520 to 1501, a 19-point edge.
Istela Nunes enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Ashley Barrett finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Istela Nunes 33%.
Istela Nunes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.