Combat Edge Intelligence

Astemir Nagoev vs Edson Machavane

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record7-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'9"
-Reach-
127 lbsWeight135 lbs
Best FightersTeamCreonte BJJ Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Astemir NagoevNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581
Edson MachavaneNow 1595
If they win+24→ 1619
If they lose-24→ 1571

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1510 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Astemir NagoevEdson Machavane
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
3 (38%)
Submission
3 (43%)
4 (50%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Machavane55%
Astemir Nagoev 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Machavane a 55% favorite over Astemir Nagoev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Astemir Nagoev's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1597 vs 1595), separated by just 2 points.

Astemir Nagoev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Edson Machavane enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Astemir Nagoev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Edson Machavane 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.