Ayane Hirata vs Emily Peters Kagan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-4-0Record3-3-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
4'10"Height5'3"
-Reach37.00
108 lbsWeight115 lbs
BurstTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Ayane Hirata is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Emily Peters Kagan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1516
If they lose-26→ 1468
If they win+26→ 1485
If they lose-22→ 1437
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ayane HirataEmily Peters Kagan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ayane Hirata78%
Emily Peters Kagan 22%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Ayane Hirata a 78% favorite over Emily Peters Kagan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Ayane Hirata holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1494 to 1459, a 35-point edge.
Ayane Hirata enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Emily Peters Kagan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ayane Hirata finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Emily Peters Kagan 0%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.