Combat Edge Intelligence

Ayinda Octave vs Carlton Minus

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record14-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'11"
71"Reach75,0"
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tauras Martial ArtsTeamAvalanche Wrestling Association

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ayinda OctaveNow 1596
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Carlton MinusNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1531 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
3.50
Not available
Strike accuracy
40%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.97
Not available
Strike defense
50%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0
Not available
Takedown accuracy
0%
Not available
Takedown defense
59%
Not available
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ayinda OctaveCarlton Minus
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
1 (14%)
Submission
1 (7%)
2 (29%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Carlton Minus54%
Ayinda Octave 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Carlton Minus a 54% favorite over Ayinda Octave in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1597), separated by just 1 points.

Ayinda Octave enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ayinda Octave finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Carlton Minus 79%.

Carlton Minus carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.