Combat Edge Intelligence

Ayinda Octave vs Takuya Shibamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record6-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
71"Reach-
156 lbsWeight156 lbs
Tauras Martial ArtsTeamReversal Gym Shinjuku Me, We· 1638 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ayinda OctaveNow 1596
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Takuya ShibamuraNow 1594
If they win+24→ 1618
If they lose-24→ 1570

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1531 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1493 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Ayinda OctaveTakuya Shibamura
15501600165020252026

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
4 (67%)
1 (14%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (29%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Ayinda Octave57%
Takuya Shibamura 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ayinda Octave a 57% favorite over Takuya Shibamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1594), separated by just 2 points.

Ayinda Octave enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ayinda Octave finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Takuya Shibamura 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.