Bagdos Olzhabay vs Kegan Gennrich
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-6-0Record12-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'2"
68.9"Reach75"
149 lbsWeight171 lbs
Almaty Fight AcademyTeamFox Valley Grappling Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1627
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bagdos OlzhabayKegan Gennrich
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kegan Gennrich71%
Bagdos Olzhabay 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kegan Gennrich a 71% favorite over Bagdos Olzhabay in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Bagdos Olzhabay's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1643 vs 1642), separated by just 1 points.
Bagdos Olzhabay enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kegan Gennrich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Bagdos Olzhabay finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Kegan Gennrich 50%.
Kegan Gennrich carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.