Combat Edge Intelligence

Bagdos Olzhabay vs Nikolas Motta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

17-6-0Record15-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
68.9"Reach70"
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
Almaty Fight AcademyTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bagdos OlzhabayNow 1643
If they win+16→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1627
Nikolas MottaNow 1643
If they win+16→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1627

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1547 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
3.64
Not available
Strike accuracy
37%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.50
Not available
Strike defense
56%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
Not available
Takedown defense
82%
Not available
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Bagdos OlzhabayNikolas Motta
16502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (18%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
9 (53%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (29%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Nikolas Motta59%
Bagdos Olzhabay 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nikolas Motta a 59% favorite over Bagdos Olzhabay in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Bagdos Olzhabay's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1643 vs 1643), separated by just 0 points.

Bagdos Olzhabay enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Bagdos Olzhabay finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Nikolas Motta 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.