Billy Vaughan vs Kyohei Hagiwara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-17-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Buckeye MMATeamTeam Smoker
What's at stake
Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Billy Vaughan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1433
If they lose-10→ 1409
If they win+14→ 1480
If they lose-18→ 1448
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1533 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Billy VaughanKyohei Hagiwara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyohei Hagiwara78%
Billy Vaughan 22%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 78% favorite over Billy Vaughan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1466 to 1419, a 47-point edge.
Billy Vaughan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Billy Vaughan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.