Brandon Davis vs Dylan Smerillo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-13-0Record5-4-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72"Reach-
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Alan Belcher MMA ClubTeam3soteric
What's at stake
Brandon Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Dylan Smerillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1595
If they lose-14→ 1571
If they win+27→ 1563
If they lose-21→ 1515
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon DavisDylan Smerillo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dylan Smerillo70%
Brandon Davis 30%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Dylan Smerillo a 70% favorite over Brandon Davis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brandon Davis's way (43%).
Brandon Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1585 to 1536, a 49-point edge.
Brandon Davis enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Brandon Davis finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Dylan Smerillo 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.