Caio Bittencourt vs Rafael Xavier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-11-0Record14-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
75"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Roxo Strike TeamTeamSayyato Performance Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
If they win+16→ 1594
If they lose-16→ 1562
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Caio BittencourtRafael Xavier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Bittencourt51%
Rafael Xavier 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Bittencourt a 51% favorite over Rafael Xavier in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Xavier's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1578), separated by just 2 points.
Caio Bittencourt finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Xavier 86%.
Rafael Xavier carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.